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Full text of ' ). To determine whether the rate of population change accelerated or decelerated during the study period, we fitted quadratic Poisson regression models in which both the year and the square of year were included as explanatory variables. The rate of decline is considered decelerating if the regression coefficient for the square of year is positive and is considered accelerating if this coefficient is negative. We carried out significance tests of hypotheses about population changes using F tests, with the ratio of the residual deviance of the model with the most estimated parameters to its residual degrees of freedom being used as the error mean square.

Likelihood-ratio tests were not performed because vultures often occur in groups, leading to counts being overdispersed. For this reason, asymptotic standard errors of parameter estimates are likely to be unreliable, so we obtained 95% confidence intervals for estimates using a bootstrap method. We took random samples of k transects, with replacement, from the k transects available for a particular time period.

We then fitted the regression model for this bootstrap sample and recorded the value of the parameter estimate of interest. This procedure was repeated 1,000 times and the central 950 of the bootstrap estimates were used to define the 95% confidence interval. Further details of log-linear Poisson regression modeling of vulture counts are given by Green etcd. (2004) and Green etal. Crude estimates of vulture population size in 2007 We calculated rough estimates of vulture population size in northern, western, central and north-eastern India by assuming that the transect routes covered a random sample of this region.

In fact, we think that this assumption is incorrect because many routes are located in or near protected areas, but we have ignored this problem in order to obtain crude estimates. We assumed that all vultures within the 1 km-wide recording strip on either side of the transect were detected. Hence, the area in square kilometres covered by a transect is approximately the same as its length in kilometres. We divided the total number of vultures counted on the transects covered in 2007 by their total length in kilometres to obtain an estimate of the number of vultures per square kilometre. We took the total size of the region of northern India within which the surveys were made as being approximately given by that of the states of India, excluding Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.